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2025 Mock Hall of Fame Ballot

It’s time again that I fill out a mock Hall of Fame ballot. Well, probably past the time I would like to if I were to put the tiniest influence out onto the world on the 2025 Hall of Fame inductees. This seems to be the last of the “sure thing” first year on the ballot players for a couple of years, while also having a good handful of players that have gradually been annually rising in their vote share. Until the last five or six years, there have been nearly an entire ballot’s worth of players that eventually went into the Hall of Fame on every ballot. Some of those players end up taking several years of rising up the ranks before induction, but if a voter is voting on whether any player is a Hall of Famer on a single ballot, it might just be that they are voting on whether they are a Hall of Famer “this year,” not necessarily that they are never a Hall of Famer. Granted, there are a lot subjective criteria each voter wrestles with each year: how stats are weighed this year, or how a player performed to the stats they were expected to at the time that may have fallen out of favor today, PED status and suspicions, how apologetic a player may have been about PED use or other bad behavior, the dominance of a player, the length of time they dominated, their name recognition, awards, Championships, milestones and on and on. Sometimes it comes down to how likable a player was and if there is a perception that they are “due.” I may be a “Big Hall” guy, I would love to see more and more players that made great impacts on the game receiving enshrinement, but it’s clear that there are often more future Hall of Famers and guys that deserve more consideration on every ballot, losing their chance. Many times these players have to wait even longer to get Veterans Committee consideration, if they get that opportunity at all.


What we do know is that the players that are in the Hall of Fame do average out with some statistics. That’s not really the best way to measure whether someone should be in the Hall because they may excel in another area or have huge deficiencies elsewhere as well, and different eras bring different light on different statistics. But it is a good idea of what neighborhood players fall in. There are a few statistical mile-markers we can look at as “average Hall of Famers.” I figured it would be pretty handy to get a sense of the stats of average Hall of Famers to compare to the guys on the ballot and to supply comparable Hall of Famers to those numbers.



Hitters



69 WAR (Tony Gwynn), 2411 Hits (Mickey Mantle, 2415), 1330 R (Barry Larkin, 1329), 225 HR (Bobby Doerr, 223), 1230 RBI (Gary Carter, 1225), 224 SB (Dave Winfield, 223), .302 AVG (Willie Mays), .376 OBP (Harmon Killebrew), .841 OPS (Carl Yastrzemski), 6 All-Star Games (Jackie Robinson).



Pitchers



69 WAR (Don Sutton), 246 W (Juan Marichal, 243), 3.00 ERA (Dizzy Dean, 3.02), 2127 Ks (Roy Halladay, 2117), 412 SVs (Closers only, Dennis Eckersley, 390) 4 All-Star Games (Dizzy Dean).



Last year we saw the induction of Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer and Todd Helton. It was a really nice class of players, all great players, teammates and examples off the field as well. Gary Sheffield was the one player that I would have voted for last year that fell off the ballot after ten years of votes. The Veterans Committee voted to induct Dick Allen and Dave Parker. I have been a bit tardy with my post on those inductees, who are very exciting to see enter the Hall and a few others from that ballot that would have been nice to see join them.






First up, the players I feel are most likely to get in on this ballot. Normally I would split them up by returning players and those on their first ballot, but this year’s newcomers are rather top-heavy.




Ichiro Suzuki, OF (First Ballot)


60.0 WAR, 3089 H, 362 2B, 117 HR, 509 SB, .311/.355/.402, 2001 MVP, 2001 ROY, 10x AS, 10x GG, 3x SS.


Ichiro’s MLB numbers on their own make an impressive resume for the Hall of Fame, 3000 hits is pretty much an automatic ticket to Cooperstown and a batting average as high as .311 over 19 seasons doesn’t hurt either. The amazing thing is that he came to America at the age of 27 having already played 9 seasons in Japan, where he compiled 111278 hits and a batting average of .353. Ichiro never went down to the minors in the US and had 4367 professional hits between the NPB and MLB. Pete Rose, the Major League career hit leader had 4256 hits at the major league level, but when you add up his three years in the minors for his professional hit total he had 4683. I think there’s a bit of a debate on who really is a “professional” hit king, weighing the competition of Rose’s low minor leagues and Ichiro’s Japanese experience. Either way, being in the conversation is a monumental achievement.


Ichiro didn’t just get to his career numbers thanks to longevity, he would come to the batters box with the intent to get on base by making contact. In his first season in the US he led the league with 242 hits, 56 steals and a .350 batting average. He won the Rookie of the Year and MVP awards for the AL and the Mariners won a historic 116 games. They stumbled in the playoffs against the Yankees after a tuberculosis scare in the Seattle clubhouse. That was the first of ten straight seasons with 200+ hits. In 2004 Ichiro broke the record for hits in a season (and singles) with 262 hits and also led the league in WAR (9.2) and batting average (.372). He was not just a great hitter, but perhaps one of the best fielding outfielders of all-time. In that 2004 season he also had 30 defensive runs saved and led the league for outfielders with a zone rating of 27. An incredibly smooth fielder in right field, his arm was incredibly strong, contributing to his ten straight Gold Glove Awards.




CC Sabathia, LHP - starting pitcher (first year)


62.3 WAR, 251 W, 3.74 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 3093 K, 2007 CY, 6x AS, 2009 WS


Sabathia pitched a really long time, he threw a ton of innings and amassed a ton of complete games in his career. And for me, he pitched long enough to become a villain on the Yankees. CC is a large man. He’s listed at 6’6” and 300 pounds, probably with some fluctuation over his 19 year career. He wasn’t just a workhorse pitcher, winning more than 251 games over his career, he was incredibly skilled, with seven straight seasons with an ERA under 3.50 from ‘06 to ‘12, and incredibly athletic for a man his size. One of the most amazing things about Sabathia is that he only played 17 games on an NL team (the Brewers), hitting three home runs in his career, but one of those home runs was the second longest home run hit in the 2008 season, nearly leaving Dodger Stadium. Sabathia is thought of as the last of a certain kind of pitcher that was able to pitch a lot of innings and be an Ace for a long period of time, his career ERA was 3.74, he threw 38 complete games, 12 of which were shutouts, and struck out 3093 batters, 18th on the all-time list. He finished second in Rookie of the Year balloting behind Ichiro in 2001, won a Cy young with Cleveland in 2007, and finished top five in Cy Young voting five times. He was the ace of the 2009 Championship Yankees team that is the only time the Bombers have won a World Series since 2000. Later in his career CC struggled with alcoholism his performance on the field struggled and it was the first time that he was sidelined with injuries as well, and after the 2015 season he pursued sobriety. The next three seasons his ERAs were all under 4.00 at the ages of 35, 36 and 37, a stretch of time before retirement that likely reclaimed his Hall of Fame prospects.




Billy Wagner, LHP - closer (73.8% in 2024, 10th year)


27.7 WAR, 422 SV, 2.31 ERA, 0.998 WHIP, 1196 K, 11.9 K/9, 7x AS, Rolaids


A small pitcher, listed at 5'10" but perhaps a bit shorter in actuality, Wagner used that lower release point and incredible velocity to his advantage. Apparently, the physics of throwing a baseball make it impossible to toss it with enough spin and velocity to make it actually rise between the pitcher's release and home plate, but that's exactly the optical illusion Wagner was able to achieve. This lefty's "rising fastball" made him so difficult to hit over his entire career that he was one of the most consistently dominant closers in MLB history. Five of his sixteen seasons he posted an ERA under 2.00, and his best year may just have been his last in 2010 as a 38 year old on the Braves. Only in Atlanta for the one season, he tallied one of the great final seasons of anyone, especially with such a decorated career: seven wins in relief, 37 saves, 104 strikeouts in 69.1 innings and a .865 WHIP over 71 games. That season capped off a career with the second most saves by a left hander in MLB history, just two short of John Franco, and sixth on the overall list. As his time on the ballot is waning, Wagner seems close enough that he just might get over the hump in vote total with one last year of insurance.





The next group of players are very close to getting in. There could be anywhere between two and five inductees this year and the next two players are polling either right ahead or behind the 75% cutoff.




Carlos Beltran, OF (57.1% in 2024, 3rd Year)


70.1 WAR, 2725 H, 435 HR, 312 SB, .279 AVG, .350 OBP, .486 SLG, 9x AS, 3x GG, 2x SS, 2017 WS, 1999 ROY


In all of MLB history only Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Andre Dawson, Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran can claim to be in the 400 homer and 300 steal club. As great as his regular season numbers were, he was even better in the postseason, hitting .307, getting on base at a .412 clip and slugging .609 in 7 trips spanning 13 years. He has the fourth most home runs by a switch hitter (435) and sixth most in hits (2725). Beltran really would have been a shoe-in for being a first ballot Hall of Famer if it wasn’t for his involvement with the Astros sign stealing scandal in the post season of his final year before retirement. Sign stealing, spitballs and other bending of the rules have been rampant throughout the history of baseball, I’m not really sure if a moral judgment should be placed on involvement. Bobby Thompson’s “Shot Heard ‘Round the World” is a home run that is now celebrated not just for the drama of the hit but also for the subterfuge of relaying the sign for the pitch as observed with binoculars from the dead center field stands.




Andruw Jones, OF (61.6% in 2024, 8th year)



62.7 WAR, 1933 H, 434 HR, 152 SB, .254 AVG, .337 OBP, .486 SLG, 5x AS, 10x GG, SS



While his strike out numbers could be ugly at times, Jones was an incredible power hitting outfielder, even as a teenager, and one of the best fielders ever to play the game. With the eye test he was incredible, but by the numbers his total zone rating, fielding as it relates to the rest of the league in that season, he was off the charts great, with numbers in the 30’s and 20’s almost every year, something I haven’t seen from many other players in history. To compare, Ozzie Smith had three seasons with total zone ratings in the 20’s and one over 30, and Jones had four seasons in the 20’s, and two over 30 and finished with a career zone ratings 15 points higher despite having a bit of a drop off his last five seasons. There just aren't very many players with the consistency and reputation as a fielder to win ten Gold Glove Awards as Jones did, he is tied for the tenth most awards with four Hall of Famers and likely inductee, Ichiro. His first moments in the spotlight saw him hit two homer runs and hit .400 in the 1996 World Series as a 19 year old against the Yankees. He went to two World Series with the Braves and despite playing many years with the Braves and Yankees, he joined both teams just after their Championship runs.





The next group of players are those that are returning to the ballot and likely to gain votes over the years.




Chase Utley, 2B (28.8% in 2024, 2nd year)


64.5 WAR, 1885 H, 411 2B, 259 HR, .275 AVG, .358 OBP, .465 SLG, 6x AS, 4x SS, 2008 WS


When it comes to all-time WAR or home runs at the second base position, Utley is in a class of all Hall of Famers, or all-time great guys, Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich, whose shot at the Hall was more deserved than their Writers’ Ballot vote totals. Utley was the leader of the Phillies during a run in the 2000’s that brought the Phillies to consecutive World Series, winning the trophy in 2008. He played much better in the year that they lost to the Yankees, hitting five home runs in that series, than the year they actually won it. His career WAR is sandwiched between Jackie Robinson and Craig Biggio, within a point of both legends, and he has the seventh most homers at the position. Not only was he a great power hitter for the position but also a pretty great fielder, 123 career defensive runs saved and the same defensive WAR total as defensive great Dick Groat, despite never winning a Gold Glove during his career. The Platinum Glove award for the best fielder in the majors started in 2011, but if it existed in 2008, Utley should have walked away with it thanks to a 30 defensive runs saved season… and he still lost out on the NL second baseman award to Brandon Philips who scored only 13 defensive runs saved. He likely should have walked home with six of those trophies, and he deserves a plaque in Cooperstown as well.



Bobby Abreu, OF (14.8% in 2024, 6th year)


60.2 WAR, 2470 H, 288 HR, 400 SB, .291 AVG, .395 OBP, .475 SLG, 2x AS, GG, SS


There was a bit of a SABRmetric game a couple of years ago comparing seemingly middle of the pack players with one of the best batting average hitters of the last forty years, Tony Gwynn. These comparisons were a big reason for the election of Tim Raines to the Hall when his OBP numbers were favorably compared to Gwynn. While it’s a bit more of a joke comparison, last year Jeremy Frank noted Abreu got on base 24 more times than Gwynn, hit 158 more extra base hits and stole 81 more bags in 15 fewer games. It’s a pretty fun comparison, but Gwynn’s 69.2 WAR is still a good bit and quite a bit more star power than Abreu’s 60.2 WAR and zero batting titles (nor did he ever lead the league in onbase percentage for that matter). Regardless, Abreu was an incredibly consistent player over his 18 seasons, hitting 20 or more homers nine times and stealing more than 20 bags in thirteen seasons. His 2470 hits is respectable, but even more impressive is his tally of 288 homers, and 400 steals and near .400 career OBP despite an AVG just under .300 (.395 OBP and .291 AVG). Abreu fell off my ballot last year for space, but’s he’s back. I’m not sure he has the star power to ever get into the Hall, however.




Andy Pettitte, LHP - starter (13.5% in 2024, 7th year)


60.2 WAR, 256 W, 3.85 ERA, 1.351 WHIP, 2448 K, 3x AS


In the past I had bunched Pettitte’s vote with Tim Hudson who had a similar career but fell off the ballot, and Mark Buehrle who had an incredibly similar career. Buehrle was the superior fielder and had a lower WHIP, but Pettitte's role on five World Series winning teams and his impressive pick off move to first just barely edged him out. A member of the "core four," Pettitte's 256 wins, 60.2 WAR and five World Series titles compare nicely to fellow Yankee lefty Whitey Ford’s 236 wins, 57.0 WAR and six titles. Ford's ERA was a bit better, but that was much more inline with the trends across the league. The tainted view of Pettitte’s PED admission seems to be fading, and his overall numbers are comparable to fellow Yankee lefty on the ballot, CC Sabathia. Last year I left Pettitte off my mock ballot for space, but this year it is only fitting to include him with Buehrle once again and Sabathia for the first time.





Mark Buehrle, LHP (10.8% in 2023, 4th Year)


59.1 WAR, 214 W, 3.81 ERA, 1.281 WHIP, 1870 K, 5x AS, 4x GG, 2005 WS



Aside from their terribly misspelled surnames, Veterans’ Committee recently elected Jim Kaat and former White Sox star Mark Buehrle had very similar careers as two of the best fielding pitchers of their respective eras. Kaat is one of the most decorated fielding players in MLB history earning 16 Gold Glove Awards, second only to Greg Maddux and tied with Brooks Robinson, a three-time All-Star with a World Series Championship, and three trips to the All-Star Game, his 283 wins, 3.45 ERA and 2461 strike outs over 25 years amounted to a 50.5 WAR. Similarly, Buehrle was a highlight reel fielder on the mound, winning four Gold Gloves, five trips to All-Star Games and a World Series Ring of his own. His play on the field was rather flashy, but it was also statistically quantifiable as exceptional, he had four seasons with 10+ defensive runs saved, and his first three seasons came before the stat was measured. That might not be eye popping for a positional player, but he was able to do it in 31 to 35 games on the mound. If a position player fielded to that level they would be pushing 50 defensive runs saved in a season. The all time best season was Andrelton Simmons with 41 defensive runs saved in 2017. This past season former Gold Glove 3B Matt Chapman tied for 24th in the defensive runs saved category with 12 DRS, a Mark Buehrle equaled twice in about a quarter of the games played. While Buehrle’s 214 wins, 3.81 ERA and 1870 K’s over 16 seasons are dwarfed by Kaat, his 59.1 WAR place the lefty in favorable light to the Hall of Famer’s 50.5 career WAR. Frankly, every year that I come back to look at Buehrle’s numbers, the more impressed I am by what he compiled as a pitcher, but his fielding metrics are somehow even more eye-popping than his actual highlights.





A first timer trying to stay on the ballot




Dustin Pedroia, 2B (First Ballot)


51.9 WAR, H, 2B, HR, SB, .299/.365/.439, 2008 MVP, 2007 ROY, 4x AS, 4x GG, SS, WS


The player that I watched the most from this year’s ballot was the Red Sox second baseman, and a leader of the team for the 2008 and 2013 World Series Championships. One of the smaller players in the league, his height being listed at 5’9” was a joke throughout his career and he is likely closer to 5’6,” but he always willed himself to play with every inch of his body to have as much reach or strength or speed as anyone else on the field. The length of his career was not as long as anyone had hoped, the last few years of his career were lost to a knee injury that lingered and recurred over and over again. His undoing was trying to play through pain, perhaps trying to make up for expectations of his small stature, that he never healed from his initial injury. His career started off with a nasty slump. He had one bad month before he infamously threatened a reporter that a “laser show” of base hits off his bat was only a matter of time. After that, Pedroia went on to almost every trophy possible as a baseball player. He was the AL Rookie of the Year in 2007 and won the World Series with the Red Sox. The next season he was an All-Star, won a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger and won the MVP. In 2013 he won the AL award for the Wilson Defensive Player of the Year as well as adding another World Series trophy. For me, Pedroia was one of the most exciting players that I have ever seen play and he always had the hits, runs, AVG and OBP to back it up despite his shortened career.





Just missed


Felix Hernandez, RHP

Jimmy Rollins, SS

Ben Zobrist, UT


Next year is going to be interesting for the number of players gaining votes because of the top of the ballot matriculating into the Hall this year. It’s going to be close to see if anyone gets in or if it’s the time for edge cases to get in. It will be great for good players that deserve an extra look to gain votes to stay on the ballot and get upward momentum. My first three players left off are guys that I think might make good gains next year. Felix was an ace that deserves more consideration that some great peak players of the past that lost their chance at the Hall should be cheering on (looking straight at Johan Santana). Rollins was a great all-around player and deserves to rise through the voting with Chase Utley. Zobrist has an annual award for utility players named after him, dammit, and he wasn’t just the first great super utility player, but he really was great anywhere on the field.




Strategically left off, but would have a vote in the future


Alex Rodriguez, SS

Manny Ramirez, OF


Two great players that both served PED suspensions. ARod might break into the Hall next year considering the lack of first ballot sizzle on the ballot. They were both two of the best right handed hitters of their time and ranking in the all-timers, they just have the rotting stink of failed PED tests and suspensions.





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